Racing loses a living legend

November 16, 2009 by nicktammaro

Any fan of racing has certainly come across the name Bobby Frankel, a titan in our great game for nearly forty years.  Racing lost this tremendous individual on Monday as a 2nd bout with lymphoma took Frankel at the age of 68.  What did Bobby Frankel mean to racing?  A great deal and certainly more than can ever be explained in a simple blog post.

Frankel was the Eclipse Award winner for Most Outstanding Trainer on five occasions (1995 and 2000-2003) and trainer 11 Eclipse Award winners.  He won at least one Grade I stakes race every year from 1988 through 2009.  In an effort to remember just a few of Frankel’s many superstars, I’ll pick five of them, which will certainly lead to some glaring omissions.

5. SIGHTSEEK

Major Stakes wins: Humana Distaff, Ogden Phipps, Beldame

Known to be one of Frankel’s favorite horses, this Juddmonte-owned mare won Grade I races on seven occasions.  She engaged in a stirring rivalry with Azeri, the 2002 Horse of the Year who spent 2004 on the East Coast.  Sightseek got the best of her in the Ogden Phipps that year and wound up closing out her career with another routinely majestic win in the Beldame at her favorite racetrack, Belmont Park.

4. Ventura

Ventura was one of Frankel’s final Grade I winners and his last Breeders’ Cup winner as she scored in the 2008 Filly & Mare Sprint.  She was a three-time Grade I winner and was a daughter of another brilliant Frankel trainee and Grade I winner, Chester House.  Her white blaze face will never be forgotten as her turn of foot was absolutely electrifying.  Here’s a look at Ventura’s greatest triumph:

3. Intercontinental

An enigmatic daughter of super-sire Danehill, this filly loomed a serious player in the female turf division in 2004 but ended the year quietly after being defeated at a short price in the Diana.  She came back in 2005 in search of vindication and ended her season with a sensational victory in the Filly and Mare Turf at Belmont Park:

2. Empire Maker

Frankel had two serious contenders on the Derby Trail in 2003 and this son of 1991 Kentucky Derby winner Unbridled seemed destined for greatness.  After a scintillating win at Gulfstream he was thrust into the role of Derby favorite and he seemed poised to bring Frankel his first Derby after a Wood Memorial score.   A tough luck third in the Derby gave way to a Belmont Stakes bid for Empire Maker and he earned a victory that was historic, even for a trainer with Frankel’s accomplishments:

1. Ghostzapper

Much was expected of this brilliantly fast son of Awesome Again at the beginning of 2004.  Four starts later racing had seen one of its most memorable champions as Ghostzapper won the Tom Fool, Iselin, Woodward, and Breeders’ Cup Classic in just about five months’ time.  He came back to win the 2005 Met Mile before being retired because of a hairline fracture in an ankle.  We didn’t see much of Ghostzapper but what we did made it quite clear that he was an all-time great.

Classic

RIP Bobby Frankel, one of racing’s all-time greats.

Saturday Stakes Round-Up

November 14, 2009 by nicktammaro

First things first, there was exciting news from trainer Christophe Clement regarding likely Eclipse Award winner Gio Ponti.  He’ll be back in 2010 and his early season target will be the Dubai World Cup, slated to be run over a synthetic surface for the first time.

In other news regarding Breeders’ Cup participants (or those who wouldn’t make it in the gate in this case) Quality Road arrived safely at Churchill this morning and will van to Belmont Park on Monday morning.  He’s slated to begin his stay in NY with a lengthy gate session with former NYRA starter Bob Duncan.  Here’s to hoping he bounces back quickly and we can see him in the Cigar Mile, a race I firmly believe plays to his strengths.

As far as stakes racing nationwide today, there’s no stake race in NY, a rarity nowadays, but the Stuyvesant failed to draw sufficient entries and was cancelled.  The biggest race on the national landscape is the Mrs. Revere and a terrific 14 horse field has been drawn for the 8.5 furlong turf event.

MRS. REVERE

It seems reasonable to bet against #7 HOT CHA CHA despite her consecutive wins in graded stakes races on the turf.  She enjoyed an absolutely perfect trip in the Queen Elizabeth II Cup at Keeneland last time out and while she should get another great setup pace-wise, these are the types of horses you should steer clear from at what’s likely to be an underlaid price.  #1 C.S. SILK has been a disappointment this year but seems to have found a niche on the turf with two wins in three starts.  She probably wasn’t prepared for graded stakes company on the grass when she ran in the Pucker Up back in September at Arlington Park.  She rebounded out of that event in fine fashion taking a N3X on the weeds at Keeneland four weeks ago.  She should get a good trip in here stalking the pace as there are confirmed speedsters to her outside.

I’m not particularly keen on Valley View, Division 1 winner Bluegrass Princess but some of the also-rans in both of those events deserve prime consideration here.  #10 MISS KELLER has run on two boggy courses since coming to America and she ran a significantly improved race last time out when narrowly missing in the aforementioned Valley View.  She ran the best race of her career on a good-firm course at Down Royal in June and thus should move forward on a dry course.  Like many of the late runners in here she seems poised to enjoy a great setup pace-wise as there are no fewer than 3 definite speedsters in this bulky field.  I’ll use 1,3,10,11 and back-up with 4,5,7,14.

BONNIE HEATH TURF CUP

In this race a year ago, #8 SOLDIER’S DANCER was expected to cruise as he was sent off at 1-1.  He lost his rider at the start and so went his bid for a third consecutive stakes win.  He’s battled some injury problems this year but has been very good when at his best and is certainly facing a field that is vastly inferior to him talent-wise.  The most likely upsetter might be #6 MEAN SAX, who ran a much better race in his last turf outing than it might appear on paper.  He made the first move into a collapsing pace that afternoon and ended up tiring in the final yards.  He should enjoy a good stalking trip in this spot given the little amount of speed and his proven early ability.

CARL G. ROSE CLASSIC

Trainer Marty Wolfson is unleashing an onslaught on the Florida Million program and he has the heavy favorite, #3 IT’S A BIRD in this spot.  He has run two dreadful races in a row in the Woodward at Saratoga and the Meadowlands Cup at the Swamp in Jersey but he should move forward facing softer company this afternoon and really seems to tower over the other entrants in here.

Good luck with all of the Saturday races, including the large number that we didn’t highlight here!  Remember that TVG has a free qualifier for the DRF/NTRA Handicapping Championship available at www.ntra.com.  There’s no entry fee and the top three finishers win entries into the NHC.

26 musings from Breeders’ Cup 26

November 9, 2009 by nicktammaro

1.) There is no better location for a Breeders’ Cup than Santa Anita in terms of weather.  Not a chance for an iota of rain, sunny skies, and temperatures in the 70s provide a perfect setting for racing.  We won’t even get into the aesthetics of Santa Anita itself.

2.) Jonathan Sheppard is a really, really good trainer.  He took over the training of Cloudy’s Knight and all he’s done in three starts is win two graded stakes on the turf at 12 furlongs and miss by a whisker in the Marathon at 14 furlongs.

3.) Giant’s Causeway progeny like synthetics.  We didn’t really need Man of Iron to tell us that but he’s proving to be one of the more useful sires for the fake stuff. 

4.) Rose Catherine and Tapitsfly both might have bright futures.  The former proved she can hardly stand up on dirt but she sure has blossomed quickly once moved to the turf.  The latter is now a two-time stakes winner going long on the weeds.

5.) Biofuel was going to finish at least second in the Juvenile Fillies had Rajiv Maragh been able to control Negligee.  She had a great deal of momentum widest of all and the final quarter was so slow it proved ripe for a closer.

6.) Midday looked the part, was bet down and won despite a premature move from her jockey on the backstretch of the Filly and Mare Turf.  Here’s to a happy retirement for Forever Together (provided she’s retired) as she’s certainly earned it. 

7.) Pure Clan has officially erased the memory of her dull effort in the ‘08 running of the Filly and Mare Turf as she ran yet another solid race this year.  Her consistency is remarkable and I imagine there’s going to be some interest on the part of her owners to keep her in training given the 2010 Breeders’ Cup is in their backyard.

8.) Jonathan Sheppard is a really, really good trainer Part II.  Informed Decision held her form incredibly well through the year and capped off a season that included Grade I wins in the Madison, Humana Distaff, a Grade II win in the TCA, and Grade III wins in the Presque Isle Masters and Chicago Handicap.  She’s now 7 for 7 on synthetic surfaces and her only blemish at 7 furlongs is the Ballerina, which was run over a quagmire on Travers Day.

9.) Life is Sweet’s tremendous Ladies’ Classic victory, which was undoubtedly aided by the white-hot pace set by the white filly Careless Jewel, showed in a way how special her stablemate Zenyatta is.  The reason why is that Life is Sweet had been done in during the summer and fall by slow-paced races.  She finally got the setup and capitalized on it.  The correlation to Zenyatta is that she was never adversely affected by those same negative pace setups.

10.) I banked on a Bridgetown wire-to-wire win in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf.  The ingredients were supposed to be an easy lead, a soft opening half-mile, and overrated European competition.  The first two worked out perfectly but Pounced proved slightly better in a race that’ll never be confused for a memorably event. 

11.) It would seem that the Juvenile Fillies Turf and Marathon are the most likely victims of a potential reduction in Breeders’ Cup races.  Here’s to hoping both of the juvenile turf events stay as they might be even more interesting races next year with the juvenile dirt events actually being run on dirt.

12.) California Flag definitely took advantage of the rock solid turf course favoring speed but he was virtually uncontested on the pace and he simply kept on trucking down the hill.  He certainly rebounded from a disappointing effort in this race a year ago.

13.) If you asked the good folks from Godolphin which one of these horses they expected a Breeders’ Cup victory from, who would it be: Mastery, Sara Louise, Seventh Street, Music Note, Cocoa Beach, Vale of York, Girolamo, and Regal Ransom.  I doubt they’d have said Vale of York, but alas, it was him who scored in the Juvenile with a nifty late move.  Ironically, the Associated Press article about the Juvenile read, “Vale of York, a 2 year-old colt, stormed home for a frantic finish, edging betting favorite Lookin at Lucky by a head…stamping himself as an early favorite for the Kentucky Derby.”  I’m available to book anyone out there’s action on Vale of York for the Derby. 

14.) Speaking of the Derby, he might not be the fastest horse around or have the most electrifying stride but I think Lookin at Lucky will absolutely love dirt.  Why?  Not only is his dirt pedigree terrific but he moves like a dirt horse with a steady, grinding style.

15.) Zensational was over-hyped.  I know hindsight is 20/20 but I was on record in multiple places saying so much.  He had feasted on horrible competition with cupcake trips and was exposed on the biggest day at a short price.

16.) Joel Rosario picked up his first Breeders’ Cup win ever and his ride on Dancing in Silks showed the world two of his best qualities.  He can read a pace scenario very well and is a tremendous finisher.

17.) My future bet on Courageous Cat aside, the late run of Goldikova that propelled her to another Mile victory was very impressive.  She is truly a one of a kind filly who won yesterday despite not really enjoying her preferred trip.  Would it be possible for her to show up at CD in 12 months for an unprecedented third consecutive Mile?

18.) It was fitting for a claimer turned BC winner to come from the barn of trainer Mike Maker, who has emerged as one of the best trainers in America.  His main man Julien Leparoux was aboard and Furthest Land gave him his 3rd Breeders’ Cup win this year and 4th overall. 

19.) Congratulations to the Ramseys, who have put plenty into this sport but had no Breeders’ Cup wins to show for it.  They were poised to earn their first in 2004 with Kitten’s Joy but instead earned it with Furthest Land.

20.) Mastercrafstman’s placement in the Dirt Mile will forever remain one of the more mystifying decision made by Ballydoyle to me.  Sure, he ran well enough, but they had no representation in the Turf and this horse would have at least provided them a reasonable chance.

21.) Presious Passion, I salute you.  If you don’t think this guy is one of the coolest horses around you probably aren’t much fun as his breakneck, rating be damned style is just so much fun.  He did his thing in the Turf and basically stretched a two-time Turf winning champion right to the wire.  He probably won’t be back for the 2010 Turf, unless Kentucky goes through a six-month drought and there’ s a freak heat wave during the first week of November.

22.) Conduit did something that shouldn’t be construed as easy, even if this year’s version of the Turf left something to be desired.  He is a very nice horse who will now forever reside in Breeders’ Cup lore and should enjoy a lovely retirement in Japan.

23.) Zenyatta is really, really good.  In fact, she has to be on the short list of greatest female horses ever.  She went 14-14 and beceme the first female to win the Classic, a truly amazing accomplishment. 

24.) Gio Ponti is a deserving winner of the Eclipse Award for Champion Older Male as he showed up with his best on multiple occasions and was the only one who gave Zenyatta a scare in the Classic.  He could very well be back in 2010 and another strong campaign should be expected.

25.) Let’s hope Quality Road is OK and can re-surface in the Cigar Mile, a race that seems tailor made for his talents.  That could be a springboard into a nice 2010 season.

26.) So long Santa Anita, it was a two-year run that certainly created much consternation among the wagering public, owners and so many others.  Only 361 days to Breeders’ Cup 27.

 

Breeders’ Cup Friday Live

November 6, 2009 by nicktammaro

4:00 PM EST

Europeans 1, Americans 0.

This probably won’t be the first time that I play the wrong Euro either.  Man of Iron scored with a strong late rally but it wasn’t so much that he won, but that Cloudy’s Knight lost, in large part because of Rosemary Homeister’s early pull of the trigger.  Either way, hats off to this incredible 9YO gelding who has just gotten better with time.

As far as the next one up, it’s the Juvenile Fillies Turf, and the wagering is sufficiently spread out.  The European victory in the first event has prompted the public to pound Lillie Langtry even more sufficiently as she’s currently 9/5. 

I’ll throw a couple of bucks Hatheer’s way as she’s currently a juicy 18-1.

3:00 PM EST

Well we’re now within 40 minutes of the first of fourteen Breeders’ Cup races, as the Marathon will kick things off.

Just a reminder, the Breeders’ Cup Head2Head wager in which you have to pick which jockey will win the most Breeders’ Cup races closes at post time of the Marathon.  At the moment, the Field is a 2-1 favorite.  Garrett Gomez, who won 4 Breeders’ Cup races in 2008 is currently the 9/2 second choice with Julien Leparoux the 3rd choice at 5-1.

Am I crazy to perhaps throw a couple of bucks Ryan Moore’s way?  He’s on three longshots today and on the early part of tomorrow but he’ll ride Zacinto and Conduit for Sir Michael Stoute, and I’m going to take both of those two on top, so here’s to Ryan Moore having a big weekend as the 99-1 longest shot in the Head2Head.

As far as the Marathon, I’ll start off by launching a Pick 3.  In the Marathon I’ll use (#5) Father Time and (#6) Mastery.  We’ll open it up a bit in the next two legs:

$1 Pick Three 5,6 with 1,3,7,9,12 with 3,8,10,11,12 TOTAL: $50

Good luck getting things going!

All signs point west

October 29, 2009 by nicktammaro

We’ve only just begun that ten-day waiting period that begins each year with the release of the Breeders’ Cup pre-entries and the DRF Breeders’ Cup Advance.   Even the most studious handicapper surely hasn’t been able to wade through even half of the staggering 14 races set to be run over a two-day period.

Click here for a complete list of the Breeders’ Cup races in order and the wagering information.

In this little spot I’ll be analyzing each race from now until the time of final entries and those closer looks will be available via the menu on the right-side of the page.  Full-card analysis for Santa Anita next Friday and Saturday will also be available on www.capitalotb.com.

Until then, take a look at one of the more exciting races from the 2008 Breeders’ Cup, the Sprint, won for the 2nd consecutive year by Midnight Lute.

Let’s make hay at the Big A

October 26, 2009 by nicktammaro

There are really only two ways to approach the shift in racing from the cavernous confines of Belmont Park to what would resemble a racing factory if there ever was one, New York City’s racetrack, Aqueduct.  You could lament the better racing days gone by and seek sunnier skies and classier horses for the fall, winter, and spring.  Or, as I know I will do, you can embrace the change in scenery by capitalizing on what racing at Aqueduct offers. 

In order to get a fresh look at some of the nuances of racing at Aqueduct I was lucky enough to ask a few questions of NYRA handicapper Andy Serling, whose interaction with the public has reached new heights in recent months.  In addition to co-hosting Talking Horses daily and previewing every race, Andy often updates his twitter page at twitter.com/andyserling and was available for a live chat last Friday evening on nyra.com.  The following is a transcript of my questions and his answers: 

Nick Tammaro: In last year’s Fall meet a staggering 59.7% of dirt races were won by horses with the ‘P’ pace designation (either first or second at the pace call).  Are you more inclined to give horses who might have a pace advantage a longer look at Aqueduct than you would at Belmont?

Andy Serling: Not unless I strongly believe there is an inherent bias on that given day. I analyze all races in a vacuum, essentially, to try to figure out the dynamics of that particular race, unless I am dealing with a reasonably certain bias.

NT: In terms of trip handicapping, what do you believe are the types of trips that you must take note of at Aqueduct that might not matter so much, specifically on the main track?

AS: That’s a tough question to answer as situations vary. I don’t have hard and fast rules. I will say that I often disagree with people about what are perceived to be bad trips as, in my opinion, you have to take everything that happened during the race into account, and not just an isolated incident.

NT: The word “bias” is going to be tossed around more with regard to NY racing than it is at any other point during the year.  What are the essential elements to determining that a given day had a bias in your opinion?

AS: Biases are determined when horses overachieve while taking advantage of the bias and conversely horses underachieve when against the bias. I don’t jump to conclusions on biases. Most tracks, at least in NY, are even. Race flow is the biggest determinent…..not the racetrack.

NT: Do you believe the Aqueduct turf plays to a certain type of runner? 

AS: No. Unless a turf course gets very firm, or hard, which rarely happens at Aqueduct, I find the surface to play fairly with, once again, dynamics the biggest determing factor.

NT: How do you plan to approach the large number of horses coming out of turf sprints going long on the grass at Aqueduct?  Granted they are treated individually but what about horses making up ground going 6 or 7 furlongs now going a mile or a mile and a sixteenth.

AS: I believe turf sprints live in a bubble, so to speak, and horses that are effective in them, especially at 6F or less, rarely transfer those talents when going longer. The ” a closer in a sprint wants to go longer ” adage is probably even less correct in regards to turf races than dirt if that’s even possible.

NT: How influential do you believe 2YO Maiden Special Weight races are at Aqueduct vs. the same type of races throughout the summer and fall?  We’ve seen many good 2YOs debut and break their maidens at Aqueduct in the fall including 2009 Grade I winners Quality Road, Flashing, and Gozzip Girl.

AS: The 2YO MSW races on the main track at Aqueduct in the Fall are some of our most competitive, if not the most competitive, of the year. With people taking, seemingly, longer and longer to get their 2YOs ready every year, we often see some good horses, and competitive full fields during this five week period.

NT: Does Ramon Dominguez collect another easy riding title?

AS: Easy would be unfair to Ramon. Plus, he hardly crushed at either Saratoga or this past Fall at Belmont. But, he is the deserving favorite.

I’d like to thank Andy for taking the time to answer some questions as far as some of the finer points of making money betting the races from Aqueduct. 

As far as racing on the national landscape we are now less than 48 hours away from seeing the pre-entries for the Breeders’ Cup and the DRF Breeders’ Cup Advance Edition will be available on Wednesday evening.  There have been no significant developments in the news save the announcement from Bob Baffert that champion filly Indian Blessing will not run in the Filly & Mare Sprint.  The reports from Santa Anita regarding workouts by Summer Bird and Regal Ransom were extremely positive and you are certain to hear many more rave reviews between now and November 6.

Since Aqueduct was the focal point of this entry I’ll leave you with a replay of the crown jewel of the fall meet, the Cigar Mile, the 2008 edition.

No ‘Stars but Cup approaching rapidly

October 13, 2009 by nicktammaro

The racing world suffered what some would consider to be a disappointment with the announcement that Sea the Stars, the highly decorated European champion and Arc winner, would be retired and thus not contest any Breeders’ Cup race next month at Santa Anita.   Was it a surprise?  Surely not, especially given that any horse who campaigns across the pond is pointed to one ultimate goal- a win in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe and Sea the Stars was victorious in that event in spectacular fashion.

So, does life go on after Sea the Stars?  Sure, but don’t expect this year’s Classic field to look like much of one if Zenyatta is pointed to the Ladies’ Classic.  Does your blood get going thinking about Rip Van Winkle taking on Einstein and Summer Bird?  Mine certainly does not.

In other Cup news Conduit was taken out of the future wagering in England by bookmakers as his status for the Breeders’ Cup Turf is in question.  It is possible that his trainer, Sir Michael Stoute, could send Spanish Moon in his place. 

I’ll spend the seven days leading up to the Breeders’ Cup analyzing two of the 14 Breeders’ Cup races in the order in which they’ll be run beginning on Friday, October 30 and ending on Thursday, November 5. 

In honor of the great Sea the Stars retirement, I’ll leave you with his greatest triumph:

What Zenyatta means to racing; BC thoughts

October 11, 2009 by nicktammaro

It was only a matter of minutes before TVG was muted on my television as the hysteria that surrounded Zenyatta’s 13th consecutive victory was on full display.  The effusive praise of the champion mare was lost on this racing fan as her win, while routinely spectacular, summoned the question that seems affixed to this mare: why hasn’t she been run where she’ll be tested? 

Granted, she was tested in the Clement Hirsch at Del Mar against a field that she should have absolutely walloped, but the competition she faced that afternoon and in basically every race she’s run in 2009 has been downright laughable.  It is due time for Mr. and Mrs. Moss and John Shirreffs to do what they’ve thought unthinkable thus far.  They need to run Zenyatta against males.  In the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

She is beyond facing females, doing so would be a disservice to the great mare.  Zenyatta ending her 2009 season in the Ladies’ Classic would be the equivalent of your son or daughter completing algebraic equations in the 3rd grade and you keeping them studying simple division.  It is beneath her. 

Keeping on the Santa Anita/Breeders’ Cup topic, was there a more frightening result than Gitano Hernando winning the Goodwood?  I know frightening seems like an odd word but when a horse who was the equivalent of a N1X winner at a B-level track can come over and beat the “best” synthetic handicap horses in a Grade I race you have to be left awfully puzzled.  His victory made something else very clear.  American horses are in big trouble in four weeks.

There were certainly performances that ranged from good to bad to absolutely ugly on one of the biggest Saturdays of the racing year.

THE GOOD

Informed Decision – This gal absolutely loves the Polytrack at Keeneland and she showed again today that she’s going to be an absolute bear in the Filly and Mare Sprint.  She seemed completely beaten at the eighth pole in the TCA at Keeneland and dug in late to get up in the final strides.

Todd Pletcher - He continued a strong run at the Fall Championship meet by breaking his ugly 0 for Grade I streak with wins by Take the Points and Devil May Care.  The former has blossomed into a very nice turf horse while the latter showed tremendous potential in winning a Grade I in career start #2.  Expect both to soon be seen at a racetrack in Southern California near you.

Richard Dutrow, Jr. – Can anyone move a horse up who just arrived in his barn like this guy?  He won Grade I races in the span of 40 minutes at different tracks as Homeboykris found his stride late to take the Champagne shortly before Court Vision on a head bob in the Shadwell Turf Mile.  He already had D’Funnybone ready for a Breeders’ Cup try, so his cup runneth over.

THE BAD

Justenuffhumor – Had he “jumped the shark” prior to his Shadwell Turf Mile flop today?  It seems so as he was lifeless in his first try at a mile since his maiden win as he turned for home about 10 lengths out and never factored into the decision.

Dublin – He was basically a no-show in the Champagne as he seemed to be in a great spot down the backstretch and around the far turn but came up empty when called on and even behaved greenly when it counted.  You can expect him to be off the Breeders’ Cup trail for now but might still be a 3YO worth noting.

The Breeders’ Futurity – Ugh.  The streak of head-scratching results in this race continued (at least for me) as Noble’s Promise won his 2nd consecutive stakes race and became the first Grade I winner sired by Cuvee.  He is obviously Breeders’ Cup bound but where were the favorites in this race?  Backtalk finished a non-threatening eighth at 7/2.  The maiden, Make Music for Me, checked in fourth beaten 4 3/4 and Dixie Band was tenth nearly four lengths behind Soundman, who set the pace and stopped at 99-1.

THE UGLY

Ramon Dominguez – Look, I’m as big a Dominguez fan as anybody but the ride he put on Courageous Cat might have been the worst he’s ever given any horse anywhere at any time.  In a race loaded with confirmed speed he decided to use this son of Storm Cat into the turn to get the early lead, he then conceded the lead going down the backstretch, waited to make a move around the far turn while the eventual winner got in position, attempted to split horses in upper stretch, angled out and finished with interest.  Pardon me, but I don’t think Take the Points is a length better than Courageous Cat.

So there’s definitely a lot to chew on before the two day Breeders’ Cup bonanza but I am certain of one thing at this point.  Races run on the Pro-Ride are going to get a fraction of the money out of my pocket that they have in year’s past.

Super Saturday…LIVE!

October 3, 2009 by nicktammaro

6:12 PM

The Grade I races are over and here are some initial observations:

1.) Todd Pletcher’s Grade I losing streak will end soon.  I promise.

2.) Summer Bird is a very, very nice horse and is a deserving winner of the Eclipse for champion 3YO.  Let’s hope he stays on one piece next year and then the handicap ranks will have a real titan.

3.) Quality Road is fully back on the road to stardom as he ran a terrific race today.  He is probably not a 10 furlong animal but certainly has a future at or around a mile on the dirt and maybe even the turf.

4.) Gio Ponti is going to be tough if he takes to the Pro-Ride as he ran huge in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic at a distance that was too far on a course that was almost unmanageable. 

5.) Pure Clan is a gem of consistency and deserves a look in five weeks at SA.  How about Criticism though as an off the wall longshot that prefers firm turf?

I’ll be back later with more thoughts but it has certainly been an interesting Super Saturday full of terrific performances and some huge surprises.

4:25 PM

The skies have opened up at Belmont Park and that made viewing the Vosburgh a tad more difficult as the field was somewhat invisible going into the turn.  Kodiak Kowboy, now back in the barn of trainer Steve Asmussen, surged late and was up just in time.  He had developed a history of hanging in the waning stages of his bigger efforts but is now a Grade I winner two times over. 

Our Pick 4 is toast as Fabulous Strike was caught in the last jump by Kodiak Kowboy for the second time this year.

3:50 PM

Music Note won the Beldame about as easily as a racehorse can and she’s headed to the Breeders’ Cup according to trainer Saeed bin Suroor, who was in from Europe to see the daughter of A.P. Indy win her fourth Grade I stakes race at Belmont Park.

Well, it’s time for the Pick 4, let’s single Fabulous Strike, who for all intents and purposes is supposed to win the Vosburgh.  He may have to deal with Go Go Shoot late but I think he’s just simply better than that runner.  In the Flower Bowl let’s go 5 deep with the remaining half of the Christophe Clement entry, #3 PURE CLAN, #4 DYNAFORCE, #5 CRITICISM, and #7 MONEYCAN’TBUYMELOVE.  In the Hirsch we’ll use #1 GIO PONTI, #3 AL KHALI, #4 TELLING, and #8 GRAND COUTURIER and then close things out with #2 MACHO AGAIN, #3 SUMMER BIRD, and #7 QUALITY ROAD.  That’s good for a total of $60 in this $500,000 Guaranteed All-Grade I Pick 4.

3:05 PM

Raise your hand if you didn’t see a wire-to-wire win coming in the 5th?  I certainly didn’t and even if I did it wasn’t from Krypton.  So goes our Pick 3 and we basically reset headed into the stakes portion of the Super Saturday card.  #2 MUSIC NOTE has opened with over 12k bet to place on her and is currently 1/9 on the board.  The daily double from her to #5 FABULOUS STRIKE in Race 8, the Vosburgh is currently paying about 1/5. 

Let’s hang onto our $71.50 and play the Pick 4 as the Beldame doesn’t exactly look like a good betting race.

2:34 PM

You could definitely chalk the 4th up as an exciting race as a blanket finish had four noses within a neck of one another.  Sangre Frio with a perfect rail-skimming ride was just up under Alan Garcia at 15.5-1 and got us through the first leg of the Pick 3 with a nifty start. 

Note in Race 5 that first-time starter #5 FORMULAFORSUCCESS is bet heavily in the win pool as he’s currently 5-1 but the $2 double from Sangre Frio is paying better than $450.  For comparison’s sake, #8 ROMANS REWARD is currently 4-1 and the $2 double from Sangre Frio is paying just over $141.  It’s always worth noting when a firster is hit hard in the win pool.

#3 EXTRAEXTRAORDINARY ran a truly remarkable race at first asking as he was away poorly, hurried into contention down the backstretch, was shuffled back heading around the turn then angled out and rallied well to grab the place dough narrowly.  What was even more impressive is that he hails from a barn that rarely has success with firsters and had only had one firster finish in the money when debuting on the weeds in the last five years.  Look for this guy to be very tough to beat in this spot.  We’ll roll with the Pick 3 and try to bank on the early money on Formulaforsuccess being the right money.  Let’s play $5 Win/Place on #5 and $1 Exactas 5/1,2,3,4,6,7,8,10 and $1,2,3,4,6,7,8,10/5 for a total of $26 which brings our bankroll to $71.50 with the Pick 3 one for one. 

1:56 PM

Pretty strong effort from Sky’s the Limit who was hurried to the lead by Kent Desormeaux, set solid fractions and had plenty left to fend off the favorite at the top of the stretch.  Our mythical bankroll now stands at $145.50. 

In the fourth race, I really liked #1 B Z WARRIOR, who had a bit of a tough trip last time out and was set to make his third start off a layoff. Is #1A SCHNEERSON capable of getting the job done?  Sure, but 7/2 is not very exciting.  #5 CAPTAIN RIO is a solid favorite but considering how poorly Tom Albertrani’s barn went at Saratoga and that this guy’s big runner-up finish came on opening day, why didn’t he come back at all upstate?  He’s now been working a bit spotty and looks a little bit like a horse who’s held together with glue and sticks.

Let’s launch a Pick 3 that treats this race like the wide-open event I see it being: 1,2,4,5,7,9 with 1,3,5,8 with 1,2 TOTAL: $48

1:37 PM

Please note the following scratches in the stakes races later today.  In the 7th race, the Vosburgh, #2 PEACE CHANT is scratched.  In Race 8, the Flower Bowl, #1 CARIBBEAN SUNSET is scratched and in Race 9, the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational, so far #1A WINCHESTER and #6 READY’S ECHO are scratched.  At this point in time #7 PRESIOUS PASSION is still in the field, but the first sign of rain could send him to the sidelines.

1:35 PM

We’re two races into Super Saturday and it’s been chalky thus far.  Independence War gave the Jayaramans and trainer Tim Ice what they’re hoping will be their first of two wins today in taking the first as the 13-10 favorite.  Crazy Charlie completed a $9.10 double by wearing down a very soft group of maiden sellers in Race 2 as the 4/5 favorite. 

The wagering for the third opened with what I found to be a bit of a surprise.  #8 JAYDEN’S HOPE was a solid early favorite and is currently still the most backed by the public at 9/5.  I’ll stick with #3 SKY’S THE LIMIT, who hasn’t been out since last winter at Calder but starts for a barn that has been on an absolute tear in the last four days.  With our mythical $100 bankroll for Super Saturday let’s play $10 Win/Place on #3.

Super Saturday summons stars

September 29, 2009 by nicktammaro

It’s been far too long since I updated this little spot but the racing season goes through a bit of a lull between the start of the Belmont meet and the beginning of the final Breeders’ Cup prep season.  Between Saturday and the 11th of October there will be a staggering 20 Grade I races run at three different racetracks (Belmont, Oak Tree, Keeneland).

Things get started this Saturday at Belmont with the $400,000 Vosburgh (6 furlongs), $600,000 Flower Bowl Invitational (10 furlongs – Turf), Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (12 furlongs – Turf), Beldame (9 furlongs), and $750,000 Jockey Club Gold Cup (10 furlongs).  The fields are gradually coming together so let’s take a look at who’s being talked about for each.

VOSBURGH

This will be the opportunity for Fabulous Strike to avenge a narrow defeat at the hands of Black Seventeen in this race a year ago.  He hasn’t been seen since a game victory in the Alfred G. Vanderbilt at Saratoga but is working steadily and excels at the Vosburgh distance of six furlongs with 11 wins from 16 tries.

The only other horse being mentioned for the Vosburgh, though of course it’ll be more than a two-horse race, is Munnings.  A multiple graded stakes winner over this racetrack, he is coming off a distant third-place finish in the King’s Bishop behind Capt. Candyman Can, another potential Vosburgh entrant.  The son of Speightstown has not been on a fast track since a score in the Tom Fool

FLOWER BOWL

Dynaforce was winless in three starts between last year’s Flower Bowl and this year’s Beverly D.  She scored nicely at Arlington in early August but certainly had the benefit of a wet turf course.  She’s made it clear in eight North American turf starts that she prefers some cut in the ground and with no rain in the forecast until a minor chance on Saturday, she may be up against it.

Criticism was towards the top of this division earlier in the year after her Sheepshead Bay victory but was somewhat de-railed when the New York Handicap was moved to the main track and she stayed in to finish a distant second.  Trainer Tom Albertrani shortened her up to try the Grade I Diana at Saratoga on opening weekend and she tracked the pace before tiring badly.  She should be wound much tighter for this try and is always a huge danger when able to get free on an easy lead.

JOE HIRSCH

Even though Grand Couturier will be looking for back-to-back Hirsch victories, he will not be the story as Gio Ponti searching for his fifth consecutive Grade I win is sure to dominate the headlines.  If the ground is firm enough we might get the treat of seeing the runaway speed of Presious Passion, a two-time winner of the United Nations Handicap.

BELDAME

If I asked you who the best female horse east of the Mississippi not named Rachel Alexandra was, would you say Icon Project?  You should as she completed her ascent to the top of the east coast distaffers with a spectacular win in the Personal Ensign.  She’s set to try Grade I company for the 2nd time and the sledding seems as if it might be a little tougher this time around as she will face Music Note, recent winner of the Ballerina.

JOCKEY CLUB GOLD CUP

There’s no Rachel, Zenyatta, Curlin, or any other recent superstar but the Jockey Club Gold Cup is shaping up as one of the most competitive races on the entire card.  The 1-3 finishers in the Travers, Summer Bird and Quality Road, are back and will meet Stephen Foster winner and Whitney and Woodward runner-up Macho Again.

There will certainly be many questions answered on Saturday and the picture for the Breeders’ Cup in November will be much clearer.

I’ll be back Saturday with stakes analysis, Sunday with a bit more and some opening week thoughts on both Oak Tree this week and Keeneland next week.

Good luck!