Breeders’ Cup Friday Live

4:00 PM EST

Europeans 1, Americans 0.

This probably won’t be the first time that I play the wrong Euro either.  Man of Iron scored with a strong late rally but it wasn’t so much that he won, but that Cloudy’s Knight lost, in large part because of Rosemary Homeister’s early pull of the trigger.  Either way, hats off to this incredible 9YO gelding who has just gotten better with time.

As far as the next one up, it’s the Juvenile Fillies Turf, and the wagering is sufficiently spread out.  The European victory in the first event has prompted the public to pound Lillie Langtry even more sufficiently as she’s currently 9/5. 

I’ll throw a couple of bucks Hatheer’s way as she’s currently a juicy 18-1.

3:00 PM EST

Well we’re now within 40 minutes of the first of fourteen Breeders’ Cup races, as the Marathon will kick things off.

Just a reminder, the Breeders’ Cup Head2Head wager in which you have to pick which jockey will win the most Breeders’ Cup races closes at post time of the Marathon.  At the moment, the Field is a 2-1 favorite.  Garrett Gomez, who won 4 Breeders’ Cup races in 2008 is currently the 9/2 second choice with Julien Leparoux the 3rd choice at 5-1.

Am I crazy to perhaps throw a couple of bucks Ryan Moore’s way?  He’s on three longshots today and on the early part of tomorrow but he’ll ride Zacinto and Conduit for Sir Michael Stoute, and I’m going to take both of those two on top, so here’s to Ryan Moore having a big weekend as the 99-1 longest shot in the Head2Head.

As far as the Marathon, I’ll start off by launching a Pick 3.  In the Marathon I’ll use (#5) Father Time and (#6) Mastery.  We’ll open it up a bit in the next two legs:

$1 Pick Three 5,6 with 1,3,7,9,12 with 3,8,10,11,12 TOTAL: $50

Good luck getting things going!

All signs point west

We’ve only just begun that ten-day waiting period that begins each year with the release of the Breeders’ Cup pre-entries and the DRF Breeders’ Cup Advance.   Even the most studious handicapper surely hasn’t been able to wade through even half of the staggering 14 races set to be run over a two-day period.

Click here for a complete list of the Breeders’ Cup races in order and the wagering information.

In this little spot I’ll be analyzing each race from now until the time of final entries and those closer looks will be available via the menu on the right-side of the page.  Full-card analysis for Santa Anita next Friday and Saturday will also be available on www.capitalotb.com.

Until then, take a look at one of the more exciting races from the 2008 Breeders’ Cup, the Sprint, won for the 2nd consecutive year by Midnight Lute.

Let’s make hay at the Big A

There are really only two ways to approach the shift in racing from the cavernous confines of Belmont Park to what would resemble a racing factory if there ever was one, New York City’s racetrack, Aqueduct.  You could lament the better racing days gone by and seek sunnier skies and classier horses for the fall, winter, and spring.  Or, as I know I will do, you can embrace the change in scenery by capitalizing on what racing at Aqueduct offers. 

In order to get a fresh look at some of the nuances of racing at Aqueduct I was lucky enough to ask a few questions of NYRA handicapper Andy Serling, whose interaction with the public has reached new heights in recent months.  In addition to co-hosting Talking Horses daily and previewing every race, Andy often updates his twitter page at twitter.com/andyserling and was available for a live chat last Friday evening on nyra.com.  The following is a transcript of my questions and his answers: 

Nick Tammaro: In last year’s Fall meet a staggering 59.7% of dirt races were won by horses with the ‘P’ pace designation (either first or second at the pace call).  Are you more inclined to give horses who might have a pace advantage a longer look at Aqueduct than you would at Belmont?

Andy Serling: Not unless I strongly believe there is an inherent bias on that given day. I analyze all races in a vacuum, essentially, to try to figure out the dynamics of that particular race, unless I am dealing with a reasonably certain bias.

NT: In terms of trip handicapping, what do you believe are the types of trips that you must take note of at Aqueduct that might not matter so much, specifically on the main track?

AS: That’s a tough question to answer as situations vary. I don’t have hard and fast rules. I will say that I often disagree with people about what are perceived to be bad trips as, in my opinion, you have to take everything that happened during the race into account, and not just an isolated incident.

NT: The word “bias” is going to be tossed around more with regard to NY racing than it is at any other point during the year.  What are the essential elements to determining that a given day had a bias in your opinion?

AS: Biases are determined when horses overachieve while taking advantage of the bias and conversely horses underachieve when against the bias. I don’t jump to conclusions on biases. Most tracks, at least in NY, are even. Race flow is the biggest determinent…..not the racetrack.

NT: Do you believe the Aqueduct turf plays to a certain type of runner? 

AS: No. Unless a turf course gets very firm, or hard, which rarely happens at Aqueduct, I find the surface to play fairly with, once again, dynamics the biggest determing factor.

NT: How do you plan to approach the large number of horses coming out of turf sprints going long on the grass at Aqueduct?  Granted they are treated individually but what about horses making up ground going 6 or 7 furlongs now going a mile or a mile and a sixteenth.

AS: I believe turf sprints live in a bubble, so to speak, and horses that are effective in them, especially at 6F or less, rarely transfer those talents when going longer. The ” a closer in a sprint wants to go longer ” adage is probably even less correct in regards to turf races than dirt if that’s even possible.

NT: How influential do you believe 2YO Maiden Special Weight races are at Aqueduct vs. the same type of races throughout the summer and fall?  We’ve seen many good 2YOs debut and break their maidens at Aqueduct in the fall including 2009 Grade I winners Quality Road, Flashing, and Gozzip Girl.

AS: The 2YO MSW races on the main track at Aqueduct in the Fall are some of our most competitive, if not the most competitive, of the year. With people taking, seemingly, longer and longer to get their 2YOs ready every year, we often see some good horses, and competitive full fields during this five week period.

NT: Does Ramon Dominguez collect another easy riding title?

AS: Easy would be unfair to Ramon. Plus, he hardly crushed at either Saratoga or this past Fall at Belmont. But, he is the deserving favorite.

I’d like to thank Andy for taking the time to answer some questions as far as some of the finer points of making money betting the races from Aqueduct. 

As far as racing on the national landscape we are now less than 48 hours away from seeing the pre-entries for the Breeders’ Cup and the DRF Breeders’ Cup Advance Edition will be available on Wednesday evening.  There have been no significant developments in the news save the announcement from Bob Baffert that champion filly Indian Blessing will not run in the Filly & Mare Sprint.  The reports from Santa Anita regarding workouts by Summer Bird and Regal Ransom were extremely positive and you are certain to hear many more rave reviews between now and November 6.

Since Aqueduct was the focal point of this entry I’ll leave you with a replay of the crown jewel of the fall meet, the Cigar Mile, the 2008 edition.

No ‘Stars but Cup approaching rapidly

The racing world suffered what some would consider to be a disappointment with the announcement that Sea the Stars, the highly decorated European champion and Arc winner, would be retired and thus not contest any Breeders’ Cup race next month at Santa Anita.   Was it a surprise?  Surely not, especially given that any horse who campaigns across the pond is pointed to one ultimate goal- a win in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe and Sea the Stars was victorious in that event in spectacular fashion.

So, does life go on after Sea the Stars?  Sure, but don’t expect this year’s Classic field to look like much of one if Zenyatta is pointed to the Ladies’ Classic.  Does your blood get going thinking about Rip Van Winkle taking on Einstein and Summer Bird?  Mine certainly does not.

In other Cup news Conduit was taken out of the future wagering in England by bookmakers as his status for the Breeders’ Cup Turf is in question.  It is possible that his trainer, Sir Michael Stoute, could send Spanish Moon in his place. 

I’ll spend the seven days leading up to the Breeders’ Cup analyzing two of the 14 Breeders’ Cup races in the order in which they’ll be run beginning on Friday, October 30 and ending on Thursday, November 5. 

In honor of the great Sea the Stars retirement, I’ll leave you with his greatest triumph:

What Zenyatta means to racing; BC thoughts

It was only a matter of minutes before TVG was muted on my television as the hysteria that surrounded Zenyatta’s 13th consecutive victory was on full display.  The effusive praise of the champion mare was lost on this racing fan as her win, while routinely spectacular, summoned the question that seems affixed to this mare: why hasn’t she been run where she’ll be tested? 

Granted, she was tested in the Clement Hirsch at Del Mar against a field that she should have absolutely walloped, but the competition she faced that afternoon and in basically every race she’s run in 2009 has been downright laughable.  It is due time for Mr. and Mrs. Moss and John Shirreffs to do what they’ve thought unthinkable thus far.  They need to run Zenyatta against males.  In the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

She is beyond facing females, doing so would be a disservice to the great mare.  Zenyatta ending her 2009 season in the Ladies’ Classic would be the equivalent of your son or daughter completing algebraic equations in the 3rd grade and you keeping them studying simple division.  It is beneath her. 

Keeping on the Santa Anita/Breeders’ Cup topic, was there a more frightening result than Gitano Hernando winning the Goodwood?  I know frightening seems like an odd word but when a horse who was the equivalent of a N1X winner at a B-level track can come over and beat the “best” synthetic handicap horses in a Grade I race you have to be left awfully puzzled.  His victory made something else very clear.  American horses are in big trouble in four weeks.

There were certainly performances that ranged from good to bad to absolutely ugly on one of the biggest Saturdays of the racing year.

THE GOOD

Informed Decision – This gal absolutely loves the Polytrack at Keeneland and she showed again today that she’s going to be an absolute bear in the Filly and Mare Sprint.  She seemed completely beaten at the eighth pole in the TCA at Keeneland and dug in late to get up in the final strides.

Todd Pletcher - He continued a strong run at the Fall Championship meet by breaking his ugly 0 for Grade I streak with wins by Take the Points and Devil May Care.  The former has blossomed into a very nice turf horse while the latter showed tremendous potential in winning a Grade I in career start #2.  Expect both to soon be seen at a racetrack in Southern California near you.

Richard Dutrow, Jr. – Can anyone move a horse up who just arrived in his barn like this guy?  He won Grade I races in the span of 40 minutes at different tracks as Homeboykris found his stride late to take the Champagne shortly before Court Vision on a head bob in the Shadwell Turf Mile.  He already had D’Funnybone ready for a Breeders’ Cup try, so his cup runneth over.

THE BAD

Justenuffhumor – Had he “jumped the shark” prior to his Shadwell Turf Mile flop today?  It seems so as he was lifeless in his first try at a mile since his maiden win as he turned for home about 10 lengths out and never factored into the decision.

Dublin – He was basically a no-show in the Champagne as he seemed to be in a great spot down the backstretch and around the far turn but came up empty when called on and even behaved greenly when it counted.  You can expect him to be off the Breeders’ Cup trail for now but might still be a 3YO worth noting.

The Breeders’ Futurity – Ugh.  The streak of head-scratching results in this race continued (at least for me) as Noble’s Promise won his 2nd consecutive stakes race and became the first Grade I winner sired by Cuvee.  He is obviously Breeders’ Cup bound but where were the favorites in this race?  Backtalk finished a non-threatening eighth at 7/2.  The maiden, Make Music for Me, checked in fourth beaten 4 3/4 and Dixie Band was tenth nearly four lengths behind Soundman, who set the pace and stopped at 99-1.

THE UGLY

Ramon Dominguez – Look, I’m as big a Dominguez fan as anybody but the ride he put on Courageous Cat might have been the worst he’s ever given any horse anywhere at any time.  In a race loaded with confirmed speed he decided to use this son of Storm Cat into the turn to get the early lead, he then conceded the lead going down the backstretch, waited to make a move around the far turn while the eventual winner got in position, attempted to split horses in upper stretch, angled out and finished with interest.  Pardon me, but I don’t think Take the Points is a length better than Courageous Cat.

So there’s definitely a lot to chew on before the two day Breeders’ Cup bonanza but I am certain of one thing at this point.  Races run on the Pro-Ride are going to get a fraction of the money out of my pocket that they have in year’s past.

Super Saturday…LIVE!

6:12 PM

The Grade I races are over and here are some initial observations:

1.) Todd Pletcher’s Grade I losing streak will end soon.  I promise.

2.) Summer Bird is a very, very nice horse and is a deserving winner of the Eclipse for champion 3YO.  Let’s hope he stays on one piece next year and then the handicap ranks will have a real titan.

3.) Quality Road is fully back on the road to stardom as he ran a terrific race today.  He is probably not a 10 furlong animal but certainly has a future at or around a mile on the dirt and maybe even the turf.

4.) Gio Ponti is going to be tough if he takes to the Pro-Ride as he ran huge in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic at a distance that was too far on a course that was almost unmanageable. 

5.) Pure Clan is a gem of consistency and deserves a look in five weeks at SA.  How about Criticism though as an off the wall longshot that prefers firm turf?

I’ll be back later with more thoughts but it has certainly been an interesting Super Saturday full of terrific performances and some huge surprises.

4:25 PM

The skies have opened up at Belmont Park and that made viewing the Vosburgh a tad more difficult as the field was somewhat invisible going into the turn.  Kodiak Kowboy, now back in the barn of trainer Steve Asmussen, surged late and was up just in time.  He had developed a history of hanging in the waning stages of his bigger efforts but is now a Grade I winner two times over. 

Our Pick 4 is toast as Fabulous Strike was caught in the last jump by Kodiak Kowboy for the second time this year.

3:50 PM

Music Note won the Beldame about as easily as a racehorse can and she’s headed to the Breeders’ Cup according to trainer Saeed bin Suroor, who was in from Europe to see the daughter of A.P. Indy win her fourth Grade I stakes race at Belmont Park.

Well, it’s time for the Pick 4, let’s single Fabulous Strike, who for all intents and purposes is supposed to win the Vosburgh.  He may have to deal with Go Go Shoot late but I think he’s just simply better than that runner.  In the Flower Bowl let’s go 5 deep with the remaining half of the Christophe Clement entry, #3 PURE CLAN, #4 DYNAFORCE, #5 CRITICISM, and #7 MONEYCAN’TBUYMELOVE.  In the Hirsch we’ll use #1 GIO PONTI, #3 AL KHALI, #4 TELLING, and #8 GRAND COUTURIER and then close things out with #2 MACHO AGAIN, #3 SUMMER BIRD, and #7 QUALITY ROAD.  That’s good for a total of $60 in this $500,000 Guaranteed All-Grade I Pick 4.

3:05 PM

Raise your hand if you didn’t see a wire-to-wire win coming in the 5th?  I certainly didn’t and even if I did it wasn’t from Krypton.  So goes our Pick 3 and we basically reset headed into the stakes portion of the Super Saturday card.  #2 MUSIC NOTE has opened with over 12k bet to place on her and is currently 1/9 on the board.  The daily double from her to #5 FABULOUS STRIKE in Race 8, the Vosburgh is currently paying about 1/5. 

Let’s hang onto our $71.50 and play the Pick 4 as the Beldame doesn’t exactly look like a good betting race.

2:34 PM

You could definitely chalk the 4th up as an exciting race as a blanket finish had four noses within a neck of one another.  Sangre Frio with a perfect rail-skimming ride was just up under Alan Garcia at 15.5-1 and got us through the first leg of the Pick 3 with a nifty start. 

Note in Race 5 that first-time starter #5 FORMULAFORSUCCESS is bet heavily in the win pool as he’s currently 5-1 but the $2 double from Sangre Frio is paying better than $450.  For comparison’s sake, #8 ROMANS REWARD is currently 4-1 and the $2 double from Sangre Frio is paying just over $141.  It’s always worth noting when a firster is hit hard in the win pool.

#3 EXTRAEXTRAORDINARY ran a truly remarkable race at first asking as he was away poorly, hurried into contention down the backstretch, was shuffled back heading around the turn then angled out and rallied well to grab the place dough narrowly.  What was even more impressive is that he hails from a barn that rarely has success with firsters and had only had one firster finish in the money when debuting on the weeds in the last five years.  Look for this guy to be very tough to beat in this spot.  We’ll roll with the Pick 3 and try to bank on the early money on Formulaforsuccess being the right money.  Let’s play $5 Win/Place on #5 and $1 Exactas 5/1,2,3,4,6,7,8,10 and $1,2,3,4,6,7,8,10/5 for a total of $26 which brings our bankroll to $71.50 with the Pick 3 one for one. 

1:56 PM

Pretty strong effort from Sky’s the Limit who was hurried to the lead by Kent Desormeaux, set solid fractions and had plenty left to fend off the favorite at the top of the stretch.  Our mythical bankroll now stands at $145.50. 

In the fourth race, I really liked #1 B Z WARRIOR, who had a bit of a tough trip last time out and was set to make his third start off a layoff. Is #1A SCHNEERSON capable of getting the job done?  Sure, but 7/2 is not very exciting.  #5 CAPTAIN RIO is a solid favorite but considering how poorly Tom Albertrani’s barn went at Saratoga and that this guy’s big runner-up finish came on opening day, why didn’t he come back at all upstate?  He’s now been working a bit spotty and looks a little bit like a horse who’s held together with glue and sticks.

Let’s launch a Pick 3 that treats this race like the wide-open event I see it being: 1,2,4,5,7,9 with 1,3,5,8 with 1,2 TOTAL: $48

1:37 PM

Please note the following scratches in the stakes races later today.  In the 7th race, the Vosburgh, #2 PEACE CHANT is scratched.  In Race 8, the Flower Bowl, #1 CARIBBEAN SUNSET is scratched and in Race 9, the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational, so far #1A WINCHESTER and #6 READY’S ECHO are scratched.  At this point in time #7 PRESIOUS PASSION is still in the field, but the first sign of rain could send him to the sidelines.

1:35 PM

We’re two races into Super Saturday and it’s been chalky thus far.  Independence War gave the Jayaramans and trainer Tim Ice what they’re hoping will be their first of two wins today in taking the first as the 13-10 favorite.  Crazy Charlie completed a $9.10 double by wearing down a very soft group of maiden sellers in Race 2 as the 4/5 favorite. 

The wagering for the third opened with what I found to be a bit of a surprise.  #8 JAYDEN’S HOPE was a solid early favorite and is currently still the most backed by the public at 9/5.  I’ll stick with #3 SKY’S THE LIMIT, who hasn’t been out since last winter at Calder but starts for a barn that has been on an absolute tear in the last four days.  With our mythical $100 bankroll for Super Saturday let’s play $10 Win/Place on #3.

Super Saturday summons stars

It’s been far too long since I updated this little spot but the racing season goes through a bit of a lull between the start of the Belmont meet and the beginning of the final Breeders’ Cup prep season.  Between Saturday and the 11th of October there will be a staggering 20 Grade I races run at three different racetracks (Belmont, Oak Tree, Keeneland).

Things get started this Saturday at Belmont with the $400,000 Vosburgh (6 furlongs), $600,000 Flower Bowl Invitational (10 furlongs – Turf), Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (12 furlongs – Turf), Beldame (9 furlongs), and $750,000 Jockey Club Gold Cup (10 furlongs).  The fields are gradually coming together so let’s take a look at who’s being talked about for each.

VOSBURGH

This will be the opportunity for Fabulous Strike to avenge a narrow defeat at the hands of Black Seventeen in this race a year ago.  He hasn’t been seen since a game victory in the Alfred G. Vanderbilt at Saratoga but is working steadily and excels at the Vosburgh distance of six furlongs with 11 wins from 16 tries.

The only other horse being mentioned for the Vosburgh, though of course it’ll be more than a two-horse race, is Munnings.  A multiple graded stakes winner over this racetrack, he is coming off a distant third-place finish in the King’s Bishop behind Capt. Candyman Can, another potential Vosburgh entrant.  The son of Speightstown has not been on a fast track since a score in the Tom Fool. 

FLOWER BOWL

Dynaforce was winless in three starts between last year’s Flower Bowl and this year’s Beverly D.  She scored nicely at Arlington in early August but certainly had the benefit of a wet turf course.  She’s made it clear in eight North American turf starts that she prefers some cut in the ground and with no rain in the forecast until a minor chance on Saturday, she may be up against it.

Criticism was towards the top of this division earlier in the year after her Sheepshead Bay victory but was somewhat de-railed when the New York Handicap was moved to the main track and she stayed in to finish a distant second.  Trainer Tom Albertrani shortened her up to try the Grade I Diana at Saratoga on opening weekend and she tracked the pace before tiring badly.  She should be wound much tighter for this try and is always a huge danger when able to get free on an easy lead.

JOE HIRSCH

Even though Grand Couturier will be looking for back-to-back Hirsch victories, he will not be the story as Gio Ponti searching for his fifth consecutive Grade I win is sure to dominate the headlines.  If the ground is firm enough we might get the treat of seeing the runaway speed of Presious Passion, a two-time winner of the United Nations Handicap.

BELDAME

If I asked you who the best female horse east of the Mississippi not named Rachel Alexandra was, would you say Icon Project?  You should as she completed her ascent to the top of the east coast distaffers with a spectacular win in the Personal Ensign.  She’s set to try Grade I company for the 2nd time and the sledding seems as if it might be a little tougher this time around as she will face Music Note, recent winner of the Ballerina.

JOCKEY CLUB GOLD CUP

There’s no Rachel, Zenyatta, Curlin, or any other recent superstar but the Jockey Club Gold Cup is shaping up as one of the most competitive races on the entire card.  The 1-3 finishers in the Travers, Summer Bird and Quality Road, are back and will meet Stephen Foster winner and Whitney and Woodward runner-up Macho Again.

There will certainly be many questions answered on Saturday and the picture for the Breeders’ Cup in November will be much clearer.

I’ll be back Saturday with stakes analysis, Sunday with a bit more and some opening week thoughts on both Oak Tree this week and Keeneland next week.

Good luck!

Hello Belmont; Opening Saturday Stakes

One thing that is undeniable about the Belmont Fall Championship Meet is the abundance of great stakes racing, as ten Grade I stakes races are run on the flat.  Two of them kick off the opening weekend of the meet and even with adverse weather conditions, the stakes racing today at Big Sandy features two heavy favorites that are towards the top of their respective divisions. 

RUFFIAN

#1 SEVENTH STREET will be looking to continue a terrific run this year as she’s a two-time Grade I winner and has finished second in two more graded stakes outings.  She seemed beaten at the eighth pole of her last start but dug in gamely and forged her way to a one and a half length score.  The track had turned into a quagmire shortly before that event and thus her final time was a tad slow, earning her a 96 Beyer figure.  Her style is versatile so the fact that there’s other speed in here shouldn’t be a deterrent.  #2 SWIFT TEMPER has been the beneficiary of circumstance in her two biggest scores of the year, the Sixty Sails (G3) and the Delaware Handicap (G2).  She took both in wire-to-wire fashion as she was able to get away with murder on the front end in each of those events and a similar setup is highly doubtful today.  She should, though, be in a good spot early and her back class puts her among the main win candidates in this field.  #5 LUNA VEGA rebounded from a terrible effort in the Go For Wand with a game win in the Molly Pitcher at Belmont.  While the GFW effort has the built-in excuse of the wet track, it’s hard to imagine that she’s found the 8+ lengths that was between she and Seventh Street at the finish.  She should, however, get a favorable pace setup and hails from connections that you must always handle with care.
PICKS: 1-2-5

GARDEN CITY

#1 GOZZIP GIRL hasn’t been out since a sharp win in the American Oaks early in July at Hollywood and now returns off a brief respite for trainer Tom Albertrani.  She has been an absolute beast on the weeds since January with four wins in five starts and Albertrani made it clear in an article with the DRF that she’s just now getting to her best: “”She started to come back to her old self maybe just over two weeks ago; she started to put on the weight that she had lost from the trip back and forth,” Albertrani said. “She looks like she’s back to her old self again and she’s been training really well.”  #2 KATARA has lost twice in a row to #6 SHARED ACCOUNT but has had excuses in both as she ran into traffic trouble on a boggy course upstate in the Lake Placid.  She has no speed and that works against her but she’s going to be overlooked in the wagering and should be able to finish with any pace help today.  #4 MISS WORLD has won two in a row and has shown tremendous promise in each of the wins.  She is now being moved up aggressively in class by trainer Christophe Clement and has more upside than a number of the seemingly overmatched participants in this affair.
PICKS: 1-2-4-6

PRESQUE ISLE MASTERS

#2 DIAMONDRELLA has been on an absolute tear since June of 2008 as she’s now won six consecutive races, four of them stakes, including the GI Just a Game on the Belmont Stakes undercard.  She was supposed to try for Grade I glory again on the grass in the Diana up at Saratoga but trainer Angel Penna opted against running her 9 panels.  He clearly has Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint on his mind and that might be a distance that hits her right between the eyes.  All she has to do is prove that she can handle synthetic surfaces and that test comes here.  There’s a good amount of speed set to spar early as #11 DUBAI MAJESTY has never been shy when it comes to mixing it up early.  That should set things up nicely for this daughter of Rock of Gibraltar.  #9 INFORMED DECISION was on a tear herself before a dull effort in the Ballerina on the Travers undercard.  She had won five in a row leading up to that decision and her synthetic record is beyond reproach.  She will, like the top pick, benefit from a good pace setup, so expect her to be in the mix late.
PICKS: 2-9-5

TURFWAY PARK FALL CHAMPIONSHIP

After being lengthened to 12 furlongs, the Turfway Park Fall Championship was made a “Win and You’re In” race for the Breeders’ Cup Marathon.  #4 GANGBUSTER could be a steal at his morning line of 4-1 as he has run three consecutive races on synthetic surfaces at marathon distances that would take this event handily.  He kicked off his 2009 synthetic tour de force with a romping win in the Fort Harrod over Keeneland’s Polytrack and has since hit the board in two other races on synthetic surfaces, including a runner-up finish in the Polar Expedition at Arlington.  He should benefit from a steady pace in here with the two runners on the inside likely to show speed.  #2 LORD KIPLING was claimed out of a 35k optional claimer at Saratoga in August as he went wire-to-wire in a 2 mile marathon.  He is clearly at his best going long and he likes to do his running on the pace.  Trainer Scott Lake has long been one of the best trainers around with horses coming back off claims, so you have to imagine this guy will be ready to go.
PICKS: 4-2-5

Good luck with the races all over the country on Saturday!

So long Saratoga

As is always expected, the six week Saratoga meet was sensational with a number of sensational performances, countless frustrating moments, and memories that will last forever (or at least until new ones begin on July 28, 2010).  Let’s take a look at some of the best performers of the meet of both equine and human variety and some of the worst.

Most Outstanding Jockey- Ramon Dominguez. It’s tough to deny that Dominguez was spectacular at this meet.  He has now won consecutive riding titles at Aqueduct (Winter & Spring), Belmont and Saratoga and has clearly become the best rider in NY.

Honorable Mention- Rajiv Maragh.  He didn’t push Dominguez for the top spot but Maragh showed incredible growth from his prior Saratoga meet in 2008 and from earlier in 2009.  He has become equally adept on turf and dirt, is a strong finisher, and can ride frontrunners like nobody’s business.

Most Disappointing Jockey- Eibar Coa.  An opening weekend trip to West Virginia and New Jersey set Coa back and he never gained any momentum at the meet.  He wound up with a paltry six victories and will need a fast start at Belmont to erase the memories of a terrible Saratoga.

Most Outstanding Trainer- Linda Rice.  She was the leading trainer in nearly wire-to-wire fashion as she took the reins in Week 3 and won a pitched battle in the closing week with trainer Todd Pletcher.  Was Linda a bit one-dimensional?  I suppose, given all of her 20 winners came in races scheduled for the main track.  However, she was very good for an extended period of time, which is exactly what you need to take down the top prize at the Spa.

Most Disappointing Trainer- Bruce Levine.  A 1-48 run at the Spa with an ROI of $0.14 was not what this high powered trainer was expecting.  In all fairness, Levine did have 13 in the money finishers but he just could not get anything going on the win end.

Best 2YO- Hot Dixie Chick.  Male or female, this gal was sensational in two victories as she cruised after tracking the pace in the Schuylerville on opening day then finishing with power and purpose in the Spinaway on the penultimate program of the meet.

Honorable Mention- Dublin.  Hadn’t it been long enough that D. Wayne Lukas was not involved in the big late season 2YO races?  He is back in full force as his sharp-looking chestnut son of Afleet Alex earned both a maiden win at the meet and a handy score in the Hopeful. 

Best 3YO- Summer Bird.  After a good 2nd place effort in the Haskell, this guy posted a breakthrough performance in the Travers as his final quarter-mile was powerful.  He is clearly at the upper echelon of the 3YOs and the discussion for champion 3YO male begins with this guy.

Honorable Mention- Capt. Candyman Can.  After a gallant runner-up finish in the Amsterdam many wondered what this courageous gelding by Candy Ride would have when push came to shove in the King’s Bishop.  He answered plainly with a strong effort where he actually finished 2nd but was placed 1st in one of the easiest disqualifications the stewards will deal with this year.

Best 3YO filly- Careless Jewel.  Wait, I know, you’re wondering, uh, isn’t there only one option for Best 3YO filly at this meet?  Keep reading.  This daughter of Tapit was the orchestrator of a breakthrough performance of her own as she wrecked the field in the Alabama tracking a solid pace then kicking strongly clear in the final quarter-mile.  She has come to hand at once and is a legitimate threat in the big late season races.

Best turfer- Justenuffhumor.  After four consecutive allowance wins on the turf this guy had some questions to answer in the Fourstardave about whether he could handle graded stakes competition.  After winning the Fourstardave with nifty ground-saving trip he ran down Cowboy Cal to win the Bernard Baruch 26 days later.  He is a turf miler with a bright future.

Horse of the Meet- Rachel Alexandra.  How could you go any other direction?  She captivated the hearts and minds of the racing world with her stirring Woodward win and has proven time and again that she is so special and is deserving of all of the accolades given to her by the media and everyone involved in the game.

Race of the Meet- The Woodward.  It may have taken until the 34th day of the meet but there is no doubt this was the best race of the meet.  It had everything you could ask for, a favorite who is universally loved by all, a couple of improving older horses ready and a task that history had proven was too tall for any prior participant.

I hope in whichever way it was an enjoyable meet for each and every one of you.  There were low points, of course, but oh so many high points that made this meet one for the ages.  The best thing you can remember about these terrific 36 days is that there’s only 323 days until Saratoga 2010!

Back as the door swings shut

The rigors of a power-packed six day per week meet took their toll on me as I’ve been remiss in not updating this little blog, so let’s clear up some of what has happened in the past two weeks.  Here are a dozen thoughts from the last few weeks.

1.) Careless Jewel was smashing in the Alabama, leveling a decent field that was missing only one “other” 3YO filly.  It is nice to see a versatile, dual threat like Careless Jewel who can win on dirt and synthetics and has won in both Canada and the US.  She is definitely being pointed to the Breeders’ Cup and would be a respectable replacement to the best 3YO filly in the land.  Watch the Alabama.

2.) One of the more remarkable yet universally missed efforts of the meet was Nehantic Kat’s in the Yaddo.  She was in the midst of a big move around the far turn before being stopped by a tiring frontrunner.  Jockey Rajiv Maragh was forced to check this gal then re-rallied in time to grab the lead late and edge away.

3.) There was no Big Apple Triple candidate this year but Fiddlers Afleet still ran a very game race to take the field coast to coast.  He is one of the more talented NY bred 3YO and is obviously back at home on the conventional dirt in NY.

4.) One of the best performances of Travers week came from Justenuff Humor, who lengthened his stride and ran down a game pacesetter in Cowboy Cal.  He has proven to be a dynamo on turf with six consecutive victories, including two straight Grade 2 scores.  Look for this guy to be a force in the Shadwell Turf Mile and perhaps the Breeders’ Cup Mile.  Watch the Bernard Baruch.

5.) Travers Day was drastically changed by the horrible weather and that rendered the main track sloppy and the turf course yielding.  The first stakes winner was a bona fide shocker as Salve Germania ran down the favorite, Rutherienne, as she received a perfect ride from Javier Castellano.  She will remain in America in the care of trainer Todd Pletcher, so look for her in a graded stake on turf near you.  Watch the Ballston Spa.

6.) Remember when I trashed Music Note and the ridiculously terrible ride she received in the Ogden Phipps?  She atoned for that effort in a big way as she rode the rail (which was not the best part of the track) to a powerful win in the Ballerina.  That effort was enough for Godolphin racing to state that the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint is her ultimate goal as 7 furlong races are her new game.  Watch the Ballerina.

7.) The best finish of the Travers Day graded stakes races came in the King’s Bishop as Vineyard Haven, off of a gigantic layoff, desperately tried to hold off multiple graded stakes winner Capt. Candyman Can.  It was a terrific effort from both but the former really ran his lungs out.  After a poor effort in Dubai, many considered Vineyard Haven to be a flash in the pan that had peaked too early.  He is clearly back in a big way and in position to make some noise in late-season sprints/middle distance races.  Watch the King’s Bishop.

8.) The Travers had the makings of a marquee race ten days out as there was still hope that Mine That Bird and Rachel Alexandra would be in the field, which meant that all three Triple Crown race winners would be present.  Alas, it was only the Belmont winner who showed up for Race 12 on the marathon program but his impression was strong.  Summer Bird backed up his Belmont win and Haskell runner-up finish with a strong showing against Quality Road, Kensei, and a couple of other stakes winners.  He is clearly getting better with every start and will be very tough in the Jockey Club Gold Cup next month at Belmont.  Watch the Travers.

9.) Wondering where Icon Project’s huge win in the Personal Ensign came from?  Granted, she cruised in the off the turf New York Handicap but that was attributed to the scratch-reduced field and sloppy conditions.  She had a tough trip in the Delaware Handicap when compared to that of the winner but she reversed that decision in a big way drawing off with every stride in the 10 furlong event.  She, like Careless Jewel, proved that girl power was alive and well at Saratoga for the duration of this meet and you can count on this gal being a force in the Beldame on October 3.  Watch the Personal Ensign.

10.) Good for Pyro.  I was always a fan and hats off to Godolphin for recognizing what might be his comfort zone and shortening him up to one-turn sprints.  He finished best of all in the Forego to earn his elusive first Grade I win and now has all the credentials to become a stallion.  A couple of horses were gallant in defeat in here including My Pal Charlie, who has a nose for the money but can’t quite get the job done, and Riley Tucker, who fought it out gamely before weakening late.  Watch the Forego.

11.) What can you say about what Linda Rice has done at this meet?  Here are her numbers in a bit more detail:

Record: 71-20-4-8
Turf: 53-18-2-5
Turf races less than one mile: 32-9-0-3
Maidens: 18-5-3-1
2YOs: 11-2-2-1

After perusing those numbers it’s quite clear that she’s done very well on turf but it’s not quite right to attribute her success to the preponderance of turf sprints we’ve seen at this meet.  The fact of the matter is that Linda Rice’s barn has been hot from start to finish, she’s had incredibly good luck (as evidenced by her wins vs. ITM finishes) and has had a variety of different horses ready to go.  Hats off to her in her quest for a training title at the toughest meet in the country.

12.) Rachel, Rachel, Rachel!  The racing world got exactly what it dreamed of in the Woodward as Rachel Alexandra battled with older males tooth and nail and came out victorious.  She set all the pace, buried all of the pace-pressers who were within striking distance early and had enough to hold on late.  She is truly a once in a lifetime, special filly and thank God we were able to see her complete a truly ambitious campaign that was undoubtedly worthy of a horse of her mettle.  Watch the Woodward.

Well, that gets us caught up for the last couple of weeks.  I’ll be back later today with thoughts on the closing day card and to hand out some meet long awards tonight or tomorrow.  Good luck today!