Bottom line, can either be beaten today?

A common question among racing fans today is: Can you make any money betting on Zenyatta and/or Rachel Alexandra today?

The answer is tough and ultimately it will be no in most cases.  However, there might be some ways you can pick off a decent exacta or trifecta, but let’s first take a look and see if either can be beaten.

MOTHER GOOSE – Rachel Alexandra

Chief Competition: Flashing and Malibu Prayer

After such a disappointing effort in the Black Eyed Susan it’s tough to consider Don’t Forget Gil a competitor for Rachel and Hopeful Image is simply an allowance horse.  Flashing has shown some potential in the past but her win in the Nassau County last time out was not nearly as good in reality as it looks on paper.  She staggered home after dueling her main rival into submission.  Her route wins have come when she was able to dawdle in the early stages and that will not happen today.  Malibu Prayer came to hand at once as she broke her maiden powerfully in a MSW at the Big A in April.  She followed up that win with a handy score at Philly in a N1X allowance race as she was never challenged on that afternoon.  She’s working steadily and is probably just as good when she can stalk the pace. 

Bottom Line: It seems highly unlikely that Rachel goes down.  A big exacta with Malibu Prayer seems a decent play.

VANITY – Zenyatta

Chief Competition – AllIcansayis Wow

After a win when she showed incredible versatility, Allicansayis Wow looked like a horse that might make some noise in stakes races.  After all, she was making only her first start in North America after eight efforts in the Emerald Isle.  Her first foray into American graded stakes company was the Milady, ultimately won by Zenyatta.  However, this other daughter of Street Cry did most of the dirty work that afternoon and was the only participant in the early pace that was in the vicinity of the big gal at the finish line.  She showed marked improvement in her 3rd place finish that afternoon and might just give the favorite a scare if she can get a better trip.

It is worth noting that Zenyatta’s worst race in her illustrious 10 race career was last year’s Vanity when she was fully extended to hold off Tough Tiz’s Sis.  Jockey Mike Smith moved her way too soon that afternoon and part of the reason for the premature run was a runaway speedster that abruptly came back to the field.  If #2 YOU LIFT ME UP is scratched so that she can run in tomorrow’s Beverly Hills Handicap, then #3 FOREST MELODY will be in position to take up the early running.  If a similar pace scenario plays out to last year’s Vanity, Zenyatta could be defeated for the first time.

BOTTOM LINE: Allicansayis Wow has an excellent chance to take down the leading lady.  Let’s play a big exacta with Zenyatta over Allicansayis Wow but reverse it and use both in multi-race exotics.

Note that show wagering has been cancelled in both the Mother Goose (G1) and Vanity (G1) today because of the likelihood of minus pools thanks to the gigantic favorites we’ve discussed.  Also, the 5th and 6th races are off the turf today at Belmont but the three events surrounding the Mother Goose in the $350,000 guaranteed Pick 4 are still on the weeds.

As Zenyatta seeks her 11th consecutive victory today, I’ll leave you with a view of Cigar’s 11th win in his magical 16 race win streak.


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