Pick Six guarantees huge Sunday

A Saturday that left even the most ambitious punter scratching their head has given way to a huge Sunday, highlighted by a 262k carryover in the Pick Six.  It almost seems as if racing secretary P.J. Campo anticipated a carryover as a string of deep and contentious fields in the sequence will make it incredibly challenging. 

It’s certainly not easy to narrow down many legs but let’s take a look and come up with a ticket on a relatively large $720 budget.

Race 6

#8 ONE NOTE SAMBA may be the key to starting the sequence if you’re on a budget.  It’s worth watching the replay of his debut as he encountered trouble at the start before making a bold move around the turn to reach contention.  He flattened out a bit in the late stages but showed that he can certainly run a bit.  His sire, Grand Reward, is 1-24 with firsters in his first crop, so you can certainly believe that this guy will get better with experience.  Think about these statistics that pertain to #5 MINESWEPT.  His sire’s progeny win their debuts at a rate of 4% and his trainer is 3-86 with first-timers over the last five years.  Thus, he was a longshot to contend in his debut.  He was slow into stride after breaking from the rail but made a decent late move.   It stands to reason that he’ll move forward in this start but he should be confined to those who have the money for larger tickets.  #9 COMMON CURRENCY is a quick-looking firster from a good barn.  He is drawn ideally for a first-timer and it’s not like any of his rivals to the inside have shown a great deal of speed before.
USE: 8,9

Race 7

There are many ways to go in this affair as favoritism may be at or around 7/2.  #6 STEVE’S KITTEN is by Kitten’s Joy, the champion turf male of 2004 who won stakes races from one mile to one and one-half miles.  His progeny have earned a collective seven wins in America in his first crop and four of them have come going two turns on the weeds.  This guy ran respectably at first asking as he contested a fast opening quarter, he subsequently fell behind and then rallied again late to finish 2nd.  His trainer, Wesley Ward, has a terrific record with 2YOs but he’s only 1-14 with 2nd time starters stretching out to a route from a sprint.

The question marks surrounding Steve’s Kitten leads you to look around the field a bit for other options.  #8 SEATTLE MISSION is by a sire who hasn’t had tremendous success with firsters through his first five crops but this guy has been working very well of late.  Trainer Barclay Tagg is 4-39 with firsters going long on the turf over the past five years but his ROI is $2.82 with three of those winners paying very well.  His last workout was exceptionally impressive for a 2YO as most trainers lack the gumption to work a baby seven-eighths on the weeds with the dogs up.  #4 CHAIRMAN NOW is from a barn that is known for its prowess with firsters but trainer Rick Violette is 22% with 2YO 2nd time starters over the past five years.  This guy lost all chance at the start of his last outing but didn’t sulk and put in a decent late run.  He is bred to handle more ground with ease and his recent works are sharp. 

#1 DROSSELMEYER is due to get plenty of support at the windows because of his trainer and jockey but note this stat about trainer Bill Mott with 2YO firsters on the weeds at the Spa.  He is is 3-28 with these types over the past five years and two of those winners came during his onslaught during the 2007 meet.  The other winner was subsequent Grade I winner My Typhoon way back in 2004.  Dating back to last year’s meet Mott is 0-7 with babies debuting on the weeds and his 3 starters at this meet have looked terrible.  #3 ONE SKY’s trainer, Richard Dutrow, Jr. is 0-21 with firsters on the grass over the past five years, so he’s a toss for sure.  The only time trainer Frank Alexander has scored with 2YOs trying turf for the first time in the last five years it was with debuting runners, so it’s unclear what you should do with #5 TRIPPO.
USE: 2,4,6,8

Race 8

Starting 2 x 4 leads you to take a stand somewhere but unfortunately this is not the place.  I really like #3 ETINCELLE, who is making her 2nd career start on the turf after a 6th place finish in her debut where she never threatened.  She She’s a half to five horses who were victorious on the turf including graded stakes winner Take the Ribbon.  She is drawn nicely and stands to get a great trip.

For Pick 6 players on a tight budget the biggest question you have to ask yourself is if #2 SIREN SERENADE can be trusted.  It seems like Shug McGaughey has a barn full of hangers who always get backed heavily at the windows but rarely win.  This gal had basically no excuse last time out but her dam was a $1.2 million earner and she’s a half to graded-stakes placed Saarland.  She is a must-use because of the question marks surrounding some of her rivals in here.
USE: 1,2,3,7,9

Race 9

The scratch of #6 REDEFINED drastically changed the complexion of this event and ruined a potential single for many Pick 6 players.  #4 ELUSIVE FOX looms a tepid favorite in this affair as he returns to NY off of a 2nd place finish against 40k sellers at Monmouth.  He ran well on the Shore behind a wire-to-wire winner who kept on finding after strong fractions.  His style lends itself well to today’s distance and setup and little does everyone know that this guy broke his maiden at this racetrack.
USE: 4

Race 10

#7 BANROCK is yet another who will be a popular single for many Pick 6 players as he has been terrific against NY breds over the last fifteen months.  He won this race last year with a perfect pace-stalking trip and his form has held nicely in 2009.  The biggest question mark with this guy is his ability to handle firm turf as he seems to be at his best when there’s a bit of cut in the ground.  That is enough to help this guy with horses like #2 HANGINGBYATHREAD who exits a strong victory in the Do It Fast at Belmont.  He had a very good trip that afternoon and blew by all of his rivals once clear.  He, unlike Banrock, seems to love very firm turf as his last two victories have come over hard courses.  He should be just behind the favorite early rating off the pace and will have plenty of say in the outcome.  #5 MY MAN LARS enjoyed a perfect “watchdog” trip last time out against open company and seems ready to move back into restricted company.  He was narrowly beaten by Banrock on two occasions last year, so it’s not like he has THAT much to make up on the favorite.
USE: 2,5,7

Race 11

The nightcap is an absolute skull-buster as turf sprints tend to be tough even with a couple of standouts.  #5 GHOUL ran what ended up being a remarkable race in a 45k maiden claimer for trainer Bruce Brown last fall at Belmont.  She was unprepared for the start and spotted the field a great deal of ground before rallying late to finish fourth.  She picked up her game once again as soon as new trainer Craig Cox returned her to the weeds in West Virginia as she broke her maiden then finished a game 2nd against males in a N2L allowance heat at Mountaineer.  She has enough speed to stay within striking distance early and that’s a confirmed asset in here.  #3 SMART TRADE rallied well in her last start, a 35k N2L claimer that had been taken off the turf.  She got a great pace setup and closed strongly but missed by a quickly diminishing 1/2 length.  Look for her to improve back on the lawn. #9 WE’RE HOOKED is taking a significant drop in class for a barn that seems to win just about every turf sprint they have a horse in.  She had some trouble last time out and should move forward with the class relief.
USE: 3,5,9

The Ticket: 8,9 with 2,4,6,8 with 1,2,3,7,9 with 4 with 2,5,7 with 3,5,9  TOTAL: $720

Best of luck and I’ll be back throughout the day with some thoughts on the card and the Pick 6!

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One Response to “Pick Six guarantees huge Sunday”

  1. Elias Wright Says:

    At the weeds you can register for free and begin playing immediately. Also up front is This guy, who is out as of trainer Bill Mott. This guy must qualify with at least an Ace/King combination.

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